出乎意料，特蕾莎梅硬脱欧层层阻碍
大选之前，预测保守党将取得压倒性优势，无论对英镑，还是脱欧谈判，保守党大胜都是最优结果。然而对首相特蕾莎-梅来说，事与愿违，大选前夕民调显示，保守党领先优势不升反降。
最终，梅领导的保守党失去了议会的席位优势，硬脱欧计划遇阻，对手党议员甚至要求推迟脱欧进程。年轻选民影响了本次大选。去年的脱欧公投，很多年轻人选择留欧，在本次大选中，他们力挺工党，最终让梅的如意算盘落空。
本周参与调查的科学家共有49位，其中33位认为硬脱欧可能性“有所降低”，3位认为“显著降低”，8位认为“保持不变”，选择“有所提高”的只有5位，无一人认为“明显提高”。
梅有两年的时间，去跟欧盟谈判。此前她多次表示，如有必要，即便与欧盟无法达成协议也要硬脱。但是她现在也许意识到，情况棘手。
对欧盟移民的担忧，是英国人选择脱欧的重要原因。梅先前表态，她将限制人员自由流动，以安抚忧虑情绪。其副作用在于，英国企业几乎确定将失去巨大的欧盟单一市场，这对本就放缓的英国经济来说，无疑雪上加霜。
另一项调查显示，大选后英国商界信心一落千丈，与之相呼应的是，数字显示，五月份消费能力出现了近四年来首次下滑，家庭支出变得更加谨慎。
去年脱欧公投之后，英镑/美元跌幅最高达23%，去年十月降至31年低位1.15，目前汇率为1.266。上周五，英镑到达两个月低位，50位受访者中，有26位认为，接下来数月英镑会持续跌势，15人预期会保持不变，只有9人看好英镑会小幅回调。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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