小非农数据暴增，美元指数急剧跳水
纽约盘初，美国5月ADP就业暴增25.3万人，美指急升近20点至97.31，现货黄金急挫6美元至1261.58美元/盎司，现货白银急挫0.07美元至17.08美元附近，油价反应平淡。
数据显示，美国5月ADP就业增加25.3万人，预期增加18万人，前值修正为增加17.4万人，初值增加17.7万人。
穆迪首席经济学家称，越来越多的企业面临的挑战将是劳动力短缺；新增就业快速上涨，当前就业增速为劳动力市场实现吸收经济增速的3倍。
ADP就业数据通常被视为非农就业报告的风向标。本次的ADP就业数据提振了市场对周五的非农数据的乐观情绪。
分析师预计，美国5月非农就业岗位增加18万，5月失业率料持稳于4.4%，5月平均每小时工资年率料增长2.6%，月率料增长0.2%。
目前利率期货市场反映的美联储6月加息25个基点的机率为86%，如果周五的非农就业报告不出意外的话，将会为美联储加息再添筹码。
在接下来的6月会议上，美联储将投票支持加息25个基点，将联邦基金目标区间提升至1%-1.25%，并发布新的经济和利率预期，表明今年晚些时候仍希望提升利率。
问题在于美联储接下来的行动，如果美国国会不能如期提高联邦政府债务上限的话，美联储9月加息的乐观情绪也将受到打压。
美国国会和白宫在9月份可能无法就上调美国联邦政府债务上限达成协议，这将成为新的不确定性因素。
尽管美国经济数据表现良好，但美元仍受到来自政治方面的压力。市场分析师r称，“美国政府运转越来越不顺畅，仍在打压美元走势，特朗普政府采取大胆财政刺激方案的希望破灭。”
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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