黄金在录得三年来最差月后 冲击10个低点
现货黄金周四(12月1日)继续下挫,触及了2月以来的低点,美市盘中最低下探至1160.38美元/盎司,金价已破1170关口,11月是黄金录得三年来最糟糕的月份。
油价的飙升和债券收益率的上涨阻碍了投资者对黄金作为替代投资的兴趣。11月份,黄金下跌超过8%,受到强劲的美元和美债收益率的冲击,同时美联储将在本月实施10年来第二次加息的预期对黄金也影响很大。
这导致了投资者从黄金ETF的撤资,世界最大的黄金ETF,SPDR持仓11月减少了接近60吨,是2013年5月以来最多的月份。
Julius Baer分析师Carsten Menke表示“黄金的关键故事仍在强劲的美元和上升的美债收益率中上演,这两件事都对黄金不利。我们也看到了自美国大选以来,黄金ETF的减仓已经大约500万盎司,减仓主要来自美国上市的ETF。现在市场在轮换,避险资产已经让位给增长较快的资产。”
自特朗普当选总统之后,美国债券收益率一路飙升,市场预期其对基础设施建设的承诺将会刺激增长和通胀。
这个预期推高了美元,美元指数上周触及了2003年以来的高位,周四有所回调,但仍处于高位。
周四德国领衔的欧元区政府债券收益率也大幅上涨,因主要产油国首次达成减产协议刺激油价飙升近8%,也支撑了通胀回升的预期。
黄金对加息高度敏感,因加息将推高持有无息资产黄金的机会成本,转而支撑美元,而黄金是以美元定价的,对其他货币持有者来说会显得昂贵。
在其他贵金属中,钯金在昨日大涨之后有所走软,但表现仍强于其他贵金属,上月钯金已上涨24%,是2008年2月以来最好的。德国商业银行在报告中称“像其他基础金属一样,我们认为钯金已经脱离了基本面,可能会有个潜在的下修。”
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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