多头深陷盘跌难自拔 黄金ETF持续增仓
国际现货黄金周五（10月14日）盘整下跌，美市盘中最低下探至1245.90美元/盎司,金价多空震荡有所加剧。
日内公布的美国零售数据符合市场预期，支撑了年内加息的可能性。数据显示，美国9月零售销售增加0.6%，而8月则下跌了0.2%。生产者价格PPI也大幅上涨，录得自2014年2月以来最大的涨幅。
但日内公布的密歇根大学10月美国消费者信心指数初值降至2015年9月来最低，低于预期和9月终值。
北京时间周五凌晨01:30，美联储主席耶伦在波士顿联储组织的会议上发表讲话，耶伦表示要使经济从危机中完全复苏，可能需要“高压”政策。危机压制了产出，令工人失业并可能成为永久的伤害。这进一步暗示美联储倾向于在一段时间内让通胀继续回升。耶伦讲话过后，美元指数震荡上涨，美股先扬后抑，美国30年期国债收益率攀升攀升至英国脱欧公投以来最高水平，黄金走势仍陷于盘跌状态。
本周以来，金价深陷盘整窄幅盘整之中，目前市场是按70%的加息概率来进行定价的，随着美联储加息的临近，美元日趋走强，黄金承受的压力越来越大。
波士顿联储主席罗格森周五表示，投资者正处于12月加息概率非常高的阶段，加息已经被推迟了。周三公布的美联储会议纪要显示，上次议息会议上美联储有部分官员认为如果美国经济数据继续强劲的话，年内加息基本是铁板钉钉的事。这促使投资者押注12月议息会议上美联储会加息。
自今年6月以来，美联储加息预期已经导致金价大起大落，在6月和7月的时候金价上涨近100元；而在9月和10月期间，金价下跌了近100元。不过，也有机构认为目前黄金下跌是入场做多的最佳时机，黄金正处于筑底阶段。
世界最大的黄金ETF，SPDR周五持仓增加0.4%，或3.86吨，总持仓量至961.57吨。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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