美元日内收复部分跌幅
周一(8月1日)美元指数略微上涨,收复此前部分跌幅,上周周线跌幅创3个月最大。与此同时日元微跌,上周日本央行(BOJ)公布的宽松方案力度不及市场预期,日元曾跳涨逾3%。
上周美元指数下跌2%,此前美联储未如部分人士预期的那样对近期升息做出暗示,且上周五公布的美国第二季度经济增长数据令人失望。
本交易日美元指数可能勉强上涨0.2%至95.67,距离上周五所及的3周半低位95.38不远。
上周五(7月29日)美国商务部称,美国第二季度国内生产总值(GDP)年率增长1.2%,增幅远低于路透访问的分析师预估的2.6%。但分析师称,本周的数据有望提振美元,其中包括周五备受关注的非农就业报告。
法国巴黎银行(BNPP)驻伦敦汇市策略师Sam Lynton-Brown表示,“我们预计即将公布的美国数据将对美债收益率和美元带来较大支撑。我们解读美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)7月声明后认为,如果数据继续维持较强表现,那么9月升息的可能性似乎是被市场所低估,”
美国纽约联储主席杜德利周一在一场于印尼举行的央行官员会议上表示,若经济及劳动市场迅速改善,美联储可能在11月大选之前升息,但他补充称美联储应持审慎态度。
此前美元持续上涨,周线连续3周收高,为1年半来最强劲表现。因在美国公布逊于预期的国内生产总值(GDP)数据之前,6月就业报告表现强劲,通胀、零售销售及初请失业金人数数据也有所改善。
因此,根据路透计算和美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)周五(7月29日)公布的数据,汇市投机客最近一周美元净多仓增至近5个月来最高。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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