英镑兑欧元大幅下跌
周四(7月28日)英镑兑普遍走强的欧元下跌超过0.5%,莱斯银行集团裁撤3000个工作岗位的消息,凸显出在6月公投脱欧之后,英国未来数月经济前景恶化的可能。
接下来市场关注重点已经转向下周英国央行(BOE)货币政策会议,目前各界普遍预期该行将把目前处于历史低点0.5%的指标利率调降至少0.25%。
然而英镑/美元在6月23日公投脱欧过后数小时内暴跌14%之后,其表现远较许多主要银行预估强劲,而衍生品市场目前显示的英镑未来币值要更加平衡。
法国农业信贷银行策略师Manuel Oliveri表示,“目前英镑在较宽区间交投,为了引发英镑适当的(上行)趋势,我们需要看到资本流动状况改善或是市场利率上升,但这都不会发生。但英镑并没有下跌,这可能暗示英镑已处于超卖区域。”
目前英镑兑欧元下跌逾0.6%至0.8420附近,英镑兑美元震荡走低至1.3175附近水平。
前英国央行货币政策委员会(MPC)委员布兰费罗周四在英国卫报上撰文暗示,英国央行可能将利率下调至负值区域。英国银行业已告知储户,他们可能将因储户储蓄现金而开始收费。
法国巴黎银行在晨间报告中称,“我们的分析师认为,英国央行下周将降息25个基点,并宣布购买500亿英镑资产。”
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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