澳洲9月就业岗位减少
关键字：澳洲9月就业岗位减少
澳洲就业岗位9月小幅减少，终止此前连续强劲的表现，不过失业率仍为6.2%。这份喜忧参半的数据无助于厘清降息前景。
澳洲统计局周四（10月15日）公布的数据显示，9月新车销量大增5.5%，首次突破10万辆大关，显示出消费者需求和信心恢复的迹象。
9月就业减少5,100个岗位，略逊于预期的增长5,000个。前月数据上修为增长1.8万个。
失业率则意外维持在6.2%，分析师预计会上升至6.3%，失业率维持在6.0-6.4%的时间，已经不少于16个月，这样长时间保持稳定不太寻常。
金融市场几乎未受到这项数据影响，澳元兑美元持坚于0.7325美元；上日美国数据疲软打击美元，澳元/美元隔夜已有所上扬。
澳洲联储降息机率实际上反而缩减，银行间利率期货显示，下次11月3日政策会议上，指标利率调降的机率为20%。
投资人目前仍强烈押注2月之前降息，一部分是因为，西太平洋银行本周意外调高浮动抵押利率。
尽管9月就业人口小跌，但是相较于整体经济，就业市场仍然意外有韧性。2.0%的就业年增速与美国基本相当，但是澳洲的劳动力增长更快，进而使失业率维持在高位。
截至9月份的一年中澳洲净增就业岗位230,100个，而劳动力增加237,700人。
瑞银经济学家Scott Haslem也指出，9月工时创四年来最高水平。所有这些向好趋势都说明，就业市场朝着劳动力更密集的非矿业倾斜，特别是服务业，目前没有迹象表明，澳洲经济需要降息。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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