非农公布时刻需关注的四项数据
关键字：非农公布时刻需关注的四项数据
市场预计，7月非农就业人口或增22万，数字略低于6月份22.3万的增量，但仍高于今年前6个月的均值20.8万。
符合或超出预期的表现将固化华尔街对于美联储将在9月中旬加息的预期，但需要防范7月数据向来会给市场带来意外的“习惯”。
1、就业增量
由于年中时汽车、教育和其他领域的就业变化很明显，数据的季节性调整参考性存有很大的异议。因此一旦数据出现意外情况不必太过惊讶，投资者最好不要对此过分解读，7月的就业增量有被上修的趋势，而且自2012年以来，就业市场在下半年都实现了加速复苏。
2、失业率
处在5.3%的失业率看上去已很低，经济学家们预计数据还会维持在这一低位。但官方数据还是显示，美国有1700万人不愿积极寻找工作或者只是找到兼职工作。
以6月为例，U6失业率(包括不积极找工作的兼职人群)为10.5%，虽然数据也维持了稳定的下降态势，然而还是高于金融危机爆发前的8.4%。美联储希望看到“后续改善”，U6失业率回到10%下方可能是一个重要的参考。
3、薪水
美联储近期试图弱化薪资对于就业市场形势判断的重要性，这也得到美联储主席耶伦(Yellen)的回应。好消息是小时薪资水平增速并没有超过2.2%，这就使得就业市场趋紧推升就业成本的忧虑得到缓解。
4、就业复苏的广度
零售、健康医疗、医护领域的服务部门就业增长占据整体就业增量的80%，这些行业迎来的是相对较快的复苏，且在未来数月内仍有积极的聘雇计划。能源行情形势相对堪忧，因油价暴跌，制造业也受到美元强势的打击。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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