本周希腊局势对国际金价造成的三种可能性影响
关键字：本周希腊局势对国际金价造成的三种可能性影响
本周希腊局势而言，由于希腊已经上周五(6月5日)要求推迟当日到期的IMF 3.04亿欧元的债务，本月后续三笔到期债务若继续要求推迟在6月底一起偿还，对市场心理来说也不是什么重要打击，但仍存在一些变数，总而言之，本周希腊消息对金价的影响，可分为三种情况：
1) 若希腊消息没有明显恶化或明显改善，那么本周希腊消息给金价带来的避险买需可能仍较为有限；
2) 若出现月底可能也无力还债的相关言论或情绪升温，那么意味着希腊对IMF违约的忧虑将大幅升温，这将提振金价受到避险提振，但其持续性还需看美国数据等消息是否配合；
3) 若希腊突然出现乐观的消息，那么将起先短暂施压金价，但很快料因欧元上涨美元承压而受到一些提振。
Linn & Associates称，如果本周希腊没有出现什么大的问题，那么金价会下跌，预计金价下行可能跌至1120美元/盎司。短期不排除回升至1185-1200，但在该区域料遭遇卖盘打压。
Walsh交易公司商业对冲主管Sean Lusk称，市场会关注希腊的债务问题，是否能带来避险需求则还需观察；本月16至17日美联储FOMC会议将是市场最期待的。在FOMC会议之前，黄金市场可能会转回到中性的状态。本周的美国零售及下周房市数据或转变黄金市场的方向，需关注前期低点1135能否守住。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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