德意志银行对翌日凌晨4月FOMC会议纪要作出四大预期
关键字：德意志银行对翌日凌晨4月FOMC会议纪要作出四大预期
北京时间周四(5月21日)02:00美联储将公布4月28-29日FOMC会议纪要，德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)对此作出四点预期，具体如下：
1.预计纪要将强调第一季度经济疲软，不过料凸显决策者们的观点，即近期大部分数据的疲软时暂时的，归咎于恶劣天气、西海湾港口关闭及能源相关企业资本支出的大跌。
2.委员们可能也提到第一季度产出增长的潜在季节性失真，旧金山联储近期的预期可能已逼近1.8%，因存在进一步季节性调整。考虑到初请失业金人数已持续下滑，且目前逼近15年低点，预计大部分美联储官员仍保持谨慎乐观。
3.相应地，纪要料重申并强调美联储的官方说法，即所有的议息会议都“起决定性作用”，尽管该说辞的真实性仍然存疑。因为大家仍很难相信，美联储9年来首次降息将在没有新闻发布会的议息会议上宣布(7月31日和10月28日)。
4.此外，对美联储能在12月加息存疑，因当前各金融市场缺乏流动性。银行资产负债表持续的结构性转变仅进一步提升了流动性不足的忧虑。出于这个因素考虑，美联储最有可能在9月17日货币政策会议上加息，排除了6月加息的可能。无论如何，此次纪要的核心信息将是今年极有可能加息。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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