中国央行或很快宣布启动新一轮QE
关键字：中国央行或很快宣布启动新一轮QE
据路透社报道，如不出意外，中国将很快宣布新一轮量化宽松政策（QE）–央行通过直接购买商业银行资产的方式投放基础货币，以此撬动信用投放、拉低全社会的长期融资成本、减缓通缩压力并推动经济增长。
但不同于2008年的首轮QE，此轮放水将针对国家资产负债表的薄弱环节进行调整，以确保中国国计民生的长治久安。
从资产和负债对国家资产负债表的潜在风险进行分析，可获得清晰的结论：负债方最大的风险是人口老龄化和地方政府债务；资产方最大的风险则是经营性国有资产杠杆率过高。若不出台可以挣脱的战略性措施，这些枷锁将束缚中国经济前进的步伐，后患无穷。
中国今年首季的各项经济指标全线疲弱，表明当期7%的GDP增速仍不会是本轮经济调整的最低。无论是总理李克强频繁奔波在大江南北考察民情，还是中央经济领导小组办公室主任刘鹤调研全国经济现状的负面反馈，都显示短期中国经济已出现严重的问题。
而从目前获知的信息，已推出、或拟推出的各项政策，包括央行购买商业银行资产、地方政府债务置换、三大政策银行注资、政府有意呵护下股市上涨等，都显示出明显的托底经济、降低杠杆的政策意图。
“政府正在下一盘大棋。”中国社科院研究员刘煜辉教授指出，“从国家资产负债表来看，现在政策出台的思路，就是做大资产端、封闭负债端，吹大权益端。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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