全球制造业PMI日 国际现货黄金市场静候欧美数据指引
关键字：全球制造业PMI日 国际现货黄金市场静候欧美数据指引
本日亚洲时段率先公布了中国1月汇丰制造业PMI，终值降至49.7，显示为连续两个月低于50这条具有中间意义的荣枯分水岭线，创下了28个月以来的新低，另外非制造业PMI商务活动指数也跌至53.7，创下了1年来的新低。
由于中国1月公布的官方和民间（汇丰）制造业PMI均明显弱于预期，市场对中国经济成长忧虑加深，现时市场正等候稍晚时段发布的欧元区以及英国、法国、德国等国家的制造业PMI数据，希望从数据中获得更多的交易指引，经济学家预期欧元区1月PMI将会显示经济活动仍然大致未变，前值并不佳，显示工厂活动接近停滞。目前市场预期德国和欧元区的制造业和服务业活动将轻微增加，而法国和意大利则继续处于萎缩中。目前市场预期英国服务业和制造业继续处于复苏中，因近段时间内国际原油价格的大幅疲软，对英国的工业生产形成增长上的推动。
若本日欧美地区的制造业PMI数据不及预期，市场避险情绪将被有效引发，金市多头继续保持上行动力，欧元区因上周五公布的1月CPI和核心CPI年率初值均差于预期，市场对欧元区经济依旧维持悲观情绪，新一轮量化宽松政策备受万众关注。若本日欧元区及欧系各国的制造业PMI数据较差，市场或对其反应平淡，而美国1月制造业PMI和ISM制造业指数的预期存在较大疑云，因美国第四季度GDP跌幅接近三季度GDP增长的二分之一，美国企业财报公布好坏不一，若制造业表现较差，反映以生产为主要导向的企业正面临着经营上的较大困难，从而打压美元指数走软，令美元上行力度减弱。反之本日欧元区以及各国、美国的制造业PMI指数大幅好于预期，市场由美国第四季度GDP减弱引发的避险情绪将迅速消散，资金从国际现货黄金市场流出，金价将震荡下行，试探1250美元/盎司多头关键支撑区域。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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