9.15国际现货黄金价格走势分析(2014)
关键字:9.15国际现货黄金价格走势分析(2014)
【行情回顾】
9月12日欧洲中盘时段,国际现货黄金价格承压于日内高位1240下方附近,市场受欧元区官员及德拉基的消极讲话影响,打压欧元走势,从而拖累金价走软,纽盘时段前后,金价一度明显下滑,纽盘早市结束后,黄金录得日内最低价1227.47美元/盎司,跌幅逾1%,为8个月以来的低位,反映市场对黄金的投资需求较弱,稍后略作反弹至1230上方再度呈现下行,尾盘时段以弱势整理为主,日收1229.16美元/盎司,跌幅为0.92%。
【基本面分析】
关注俄罗斯被制裁及乌克兰方面的最新进展,欧盟和美国国家上周五确定对俄罗斯实现新一轮的大范围制裁,包括金融产品流动和能源出口,西方国家此举是为了让俄罗斯更加明确自身对乌克兰的和平立场,而根据外媒最新消息报道,乌克兰东部地区再度出现混乱,当地政府军与亲俄武装分子出现交火,导致平民死亡,这使得只是维持了9天的俄罗斯和乌克兰关于乌东部的停火协议面临破裂,对乌俄两国紧张关系再起提供了不确定性,同时对两国平民希望的和平愿景造成极大的冲击。
但现时市场的焦点在于猜测美联储究竟何时会实现加息计划,本周二将迎来美联储会议纪要,届时耶伦可能会发言关于加息的强硬言论,而加息预期已经体现在上周金融市场的动荡之中,除了黄金录得5个月以来最大周度跌幅,全球股市和商品货币表现也一度承压,而美元兑一篮子货币则继续上扬,美元指数刷新了13个月以来的新高,而说到避险需求会提振黄金,由于美联储加息将提振债市,导致美债收益率提高,美债价格下跌,黄金作为零息资产,投资者更倾向于购买债券以避险。
【技术分析】
从周线图上看,K线收取为带上下影线的阴线,反映1240的较弱支撑位已经被攻破,布林轨道收缩走平后再度向下开口,MACD死叉放量,K线位于布林下轨下方。日线图上K线收取中阴线,上方受5日均线的重压,均线系统呈空头排列,目前K线暂得布林下轨的支持,布林轨道开口向下。从4小时图上看,K线受均线系统压制,MACD绿柱放量略有缩减,但空方抛压仍然较强。总体上看,伦敦金价继续以空头为主导,本日以关键高点筑空思路为主,关键阻力位1237,1240,1243,关键支撑位1231,1225,1222。
【本日关键数据和事件】
美国9月纽约联储制造业指数
美国工业生产
中国国务院副总理马凯与法国财长萨潘,在法国主持第二届中法高级别经济财金对话
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本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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