中印需求放缓 现货黄金走势低迷
关键字：现货黄金走势分析
【行情回顾】
周五欧盘时段，现货黄金价格在低位震荡过后跌势有所减缓，一度曾上攻到日内压力位1295下方，但是总体走势仍然显得较为低迷，而近期的连续下跌也导致黄金的技术形态遭到较为严重的破坏，加上地缘因素影响逐渐消退，中印实物黄金需求放缓等一系列不利消息影响，现货黄金短期内仍然难有大涨。
【基本面分析】
据最新数据显示，今年第一季度，中国黄金实际需求已经出现明显的放缓迹象。据中国黄金协会数据，今年第一季度，全国黄金消费量322.99吨，与去年同期相比增加2.45吨，同比仅增长0.76%。其中：黄金首饰用金232.53吨，同比增长30.2%；金条用金67.95吨，同比下降43.56%。
有分析人士认为，随着目前中国黄金投资需求明显放缓，个人实物黄金需求也在放缓，仅仅是央行购买黄金在持续增加，这将导致未来黄金价格的下跌。而香港政府统计处数据显示，因实物黄金需求低迷，6月份香港净流入中国的黄金量比上个月减少了23%，连续第四个月下滑。6月份，经香港流入中国内地的黄金总量为56047千克，比5月下降16.60%；净流入中国的黄金由5月的52606千克降至40543千克，触及17个月来最低水平。可见中国大陆黄金需求在短期内仍将维持下降的趋势，这对于黄金来说将会构成较大的利空。
【技术分析】
由日内现货黄金走势分析上看，现货黄金价格暂时持稳于1290上方位置，由于黄金在连续下跌之后，各大技术指标，如KDJ和RSI等均已经进入较为明显的超卖阶段，而空头力量也因黄金连日下跌而得到宣泄，加上1290位置对于黄金仍然存有一定的支撑力度，所以预计黄金日内跌幅不大，短期内仍然存有技术反弹的可能，但是由于黄金的短期下跌趋势已经基本形成，所以短期内黄金仍然以做空为主要策略。建议介入位置1289，盈利目标1283。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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