需求不振打压金价 现货黄金退守千三
关键字：现货黄金行情分析
【行情回顾】
回顾昨日黄金行情，现货黄金价格延续震荡下挫走势，继续逼近1300整数关口支撑，最终险守1300关口，日线再度收出小阴，预示着近期黄金将会持续弱势。而由于近期黄金在实物黄金需求不振的消息影响下，价格再度出现下行迹象。短期内黄金仍然有下行压力。
【基本面分析】
亚洲（特别是主要买家印度和中国的买家）在去年金价显著下跌后大量购买，今年的需求量明显回落。经销商表示，除了季节性和2013年超常规的购买，买家离场等待，他们认为黄金可能进一步下跌。
黄金当前受到全球紧张地缘政治局势支撑。此外，黄金也被视为股票这类风险资产的替代投资品。但亚洲迎来平淡夏季，黄金的实物需求疲弱，金价的上涨受限，如果金价下跌，需求也难以提供底部支撑。而根据美国路透周二调查的分析师和交易员预计，因美国将恢复正常，亚洲需求疲软，黄金2014年均价为1277美元。而澳洲银行方面则预计黄金今年将继续承压，尽管短期有可能受到进一步的避险需求提振。黄金的实物需求继续保持低迷。而金价显著下跌才能引发新的需求。
【技术分析】
根据我们对现货黄金走势分析，由黄金4小时图上看，黄金近期持续震荡在50日均线附近，上行阻力较大，其中7月份以来的下降压力线将成为近期黄金上涨的最大阻力，而均线系统由于连日来的小幅下跌导致其开始呈现空头排列迹象，虽然昨日黄金震荡下行仍然收于1300整数关口上方，但是1300点关口的支撑力度并不强，其心理支撑大于实质支撑，若今日晚间无利好刺激黄金上行，则黄金很可能会下破1300关口。
日内支撑位：1300 1297 1292
日内压力位：1305 1310 1316
由于日内黄金走势趋弱，亚市早盘继续维持震荡走低，可见近期黄金在缺乏利好消息的支持下，近期已经开始转变为空头走势，加上技术形态持续走坏，我们建议投资者日内适当逢低做多，尤其是今日黄金很可能在下行后考验年线的支撑力度，也就是1297一线位置，建议投资者以该位置作为日内的操作参考，若黄金仍能稳守在年线上方，可以适当布局多单，盈利目标1305，严格止损3美金。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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