美国数据不理想 黄金现货持续震荡
关键字：现货黄金走势分析
【行情回顾】
回顾上周现货黄金行情，由于耶伦在周初的讲话内容当中，表现得颇为鹰派，导致市场预期美联储将会提前加息步伐，使资金流出黄金等避险品种，黄金价格应声大跌，在短短两个交易日当中，黄金击穿1300关口，基本回吐近期的上涨。然而市场从来也不缺乏机会，也不缺乏突发情况，周四时候由于马航飞机在乌克兰上空遭恐怖分子用导弹击落，使市场短期内避险情绪再度扩散，黄金瞬间重回1320关口。而本周的关注重点则集中于即将公布的多国PMI之上。
【基本面分析】
上周五公布的调查显示，7月美国消费者信心指数初值下降，创四个月最低，同时消费者预期指数连续第三个月走弱。具体数据显示，美国7月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值降至81.3，创3月份以来最低，差于预期的83.0，6月终值为82.5。预期指数初值降至71.1，也创3月份以来最低，差于预期的74.0，6月终值为73.5。
而另一方面，周五公布的美国5月谘商会领先指标月率上升0.3%，虽然连续4个月走高，但是仍然不及市场预期，说明美国的经济复苏仍然缓慢，虽然这两大数据未能提振当晚的黄金走势，但是也使市场对美国的经济复苏速度产生疑虑，尤其是美联储的政策退出时点，将会是近期黄金走势的关键。
【技术分析】
由于近期市场的突发事件较多，导致黄金市场的波动较大，黄金在上周初出现断头侧刀形态后，很快就出现了触底反弹，而一阳破三线的走势也提振了黄金多头的士气，虽然之后金价有所回落，但是仍然稳守1300关口上方，短期内多空双方僵持的态势相当明显，而在周初缺乏消息面指引的情况下，预计日内黄金仍然以窄幅震荡为主。
日内支撑位：1310 1306 1300
日内压力位：1316 1318 1323
由近期的黄金走势分析，在周五黄金出现了震荡下跌之后，周一早盘黄金价格继续打开，亚市早盘黄金维持十字星形态，多空维持在1310位置进行僵持，短期内仍未有明确的走势方向，而随着近期振幅加剧，以DMI为首的趋势性指标也由上周初的空头态势回归到震荡态势当中，建议炒金的投资者日内仍然维持逢高做空和逢低做多两种策略。若黄金日内再度回到1306则可以适当做多，盈利目标1312。而若黄金日内突破1316位置，则可以适当做空，盈利目标1308，止损5美金。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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