中印需求难改现货黄金跌势
关键字：现货黄金行情
【行情回顾】
周三欧市盘前，现货黄金行情价格维持在1245一线盘整震荡，总体波动幅度较小。由于本周接下来的数个交易日，美国方面将会有较为重要的数据出炉，市场在黄金连续下挫之后，进入了微妙而短暂的僵持阶段，而今晚出炉的数据，将有望为黄金指引近期方向。
【基本面分析】
黄金的最大价值是避险。而随着美国经济好转，已有越来越多的人认识到，现在最应该做的是抛黄金，持有美元资产，因为黄金本身不可以投资，只能避险，要投资还得换成美元。在黄金刚开始调整时，胡乱买入抢反弹的往往容易被套。就算是消费需求也难以改变趋势的力量，在去年“五一”期间，中国大妈纷纷抢购黄金，结果惨被套牢。虽然印度方面的消费者较为理智，而印度也开始放宽了进口黄金的限制，但是黄金的下跌趋势依然没有任何改变。
消费需求已基本成为黄金市场的“救命稻草”。世界黄金协会的数据显示，由于季节性因素及金价偏低的影响，一季度包括中国、印度等经济体的黄金珠宝首饰消费也较为强劲。但是，近期对黄金市场构成最大利空的还是美联储退出量化宽松的政策和全球经济有望复苏的大环境。毕竟，黄金已经走牛超过10年，无论由周期上看，还是由趋势上看，黄金短期内基本没有大幅度走强的可能性。
【技术分析】
由黄金日K线图上看，黄金在昨日收出一条阳十字星线，暂时出现了一定程度的止跌反弹，而KDJ指标和MACD指标也出现了超卖的信号，预计在美国经济数据出炉之前，黄金将不会出现大幅下跌，短线4小时线仍在地位震荡，短期阻力仍然在1250不变，下方第一支撑位置1238附近，我们大田贵金属认为短期内黄金主要仍然以弱势震荡为主。建议炒金的投资者关注今晚出炉的美国数据。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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