印度需求下降 黄金现货低位震荡
关键字：现货黄金走势
【行情回顾】
周一欧市盘前，国际黄金现货价格报1287美元/盎司。3月底国际现货黄金跌破1300关口后，近期再次出现窄幅震荡整理，而前期低点则在1275美元一线位置，虽跌破1280美元之后有过两次日线级别的反弹，但未能改变周线趋势。建议投资者日内关注100日均线1285一线位置的支撑。
【基本面分析】
由于近期实物黄金的需求有所减少，尤其是中国和印度的实物黄金消费时支撑近期黄金价格的一大重要因素，若中国和印度的黄金消费有所下降，则会影响短期的黄金价格走势。根据印度零售商透露，印度国内黄金溢价从之前的120至130美元/盎司下降到大约100美元/盎司。而五月初印度迎来了其全年第二大的黄金购买节日满月节，再加上婚礼季到来，需求增加的情况下其国内黄金溢价有很大上涨。在节日过后，需求减少，溢价回落。
印度国内的大选结果即将揭晓，此外有很多猜测认为新当选政府可能会放松对黄金的进口限制，因此一些黄金销售商认为，因为民众也在等待进口限制被放松，因为那将意味着其国内溢价的大幅下跌。
【技术分析】
由黄金日K线图上看，黄金在上周四和周五收出了低位二连星形态，短期内虽然观望气氛较为浓厚，但是由技术上看伦敦金短期内下行空间不大。由于100日均线在近期有较为特殊的支撑力度，而且日内黄金在下行时触及布林线下轨后出现了小幅度的反弹，因此笔者认为，若在消息面上没有太大的利空，预计黄金在出现单针探底走势之后，黄金将会再次出现一波反弹。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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