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现货黄金高位持稳 欧市开盘前弱势整理

关键字:本日亚盘现货黄金走势

【行情回顾】

本日亚市尾盘时段,国际现货黄金自昨夜开出最高点1298.39后,现时走势趋向温和,市场短期受乌俄动乱危机升级影响,黄金站上1290上方,因其避险需求被激发,促使投资资金从股市或汇市流入。

【基本面分析】

隔夜欧央行行长德拉吉称,如果消费者价格通胀增长的中期前景恶化,欧央行会考虑扩大范围购买资产,不仅限於资产支持证券ABS。他说,汇率对欧央行的货币政策越来越重要,欧元上涨会引起欧央行行动。德拉吉在讲话中提及了可能促使欧央行采取行动的因素以及所采取的措施选项,这也是迄今为止德拉吉对於欧央行准备好采取全面QE计划最清晰的阐述。无论是债市利率还是汇率走高,只要它们体现出货币环境紧张,欧央行就可能采用传统货币工具。市场人员预计欧洲央行可以通过印制欧元来购买欧元区外的黄金来对抗通缩,从而也会令欧元汇率走软。

美国自2014年1月经历暴雪天气经济增长放缓外,至今总体来说经济状况日益好转,美联储对经济前景和货币政策的乐观判断无疑是黄金暴跌背后的根本原因,从3月末开始,黄金ETF就进入了持续减持的状态之中,在近一个月的时间里,黄金ETF增持2次,减持11次,减持规模高达29.33吨。经过大幅的持续减持后,其总体持仓量也再次回到了792.14吨,而这一水平也十分接近去年黄金下跌以来,ETF机构投资者的最低持仓水平。

欧洲时段关注英国零售报告、抵押贷款数据、美国服务业PMI以及消费者信心指数。

【技术分析】

日线图上4月24日国际金价收取一根下影线长于上影线的阳烛,金价昨日于1292.51位置收盘,本日日线图上布林带呈现缩口运行状态,反弹上行受中轨位置1300点位形成短期上行阻力,5日和10日均线形成死叉,上方初步阻力位为10日均线1298.63,日内回调将于1286点位形成初步支撑,MACD绿色动能柱偏弱,本日上方阻力位分别为1297、1302、1306,下方支撑位为1288、1282。

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