现货黄金多头撤退 非农夜决定短期走势
关键字：现货黄金走势
【行情分析】
昨日美国公布的上周初请失业金人数升至32.6万人，较预期增加0.9万。数据综合来看,对于黄金价格和白银价格的影响还是比较显著的,在晚间贵金属震荡下挫之后,伴随着逢低买盘的介入,金银价格出现了空头回补,再次试探了前期的高点位置,而综合来看市场对于目前的美国经济复苏还算是满意的,前期的复苏程度效果使得美联储继续缩减QE，而美元和美国实际利率将在未来走高，市场对于贵金属金银价格的反弹并不十分看好的背景下,加上近日将迎来美国的就业报告,在结果出来之前市场的多头撤退,显示出在非农预期较好的氛围下，多空的争夺仍是令参与者期待的,如果非农数据向好，则会打压金银下行，如果数据不佳，则金银有望获得支撑。市场参与者仍需要继续关注晚间的实际走势。
数据显示，全球最大的黄金ETF——SPDR在少见的增持之后，随着现货黄金价格的宽幅震荡,近期的持仓未有明显的举动,不过我们可以看到基金在截至04的持仓中，其持仓量为810.98,近期再次小幅减持2.10吨，综合来看基金看淡现货黄金后市有所改观.而白银ETF截止到03日,在2月15日减持59.84,而2.19日增持119.67吨,2月23日增持65.82吨,2月27增持44.87,而在1日大幅度增持47.84吨,目前持有10208.08,总体来看，四月初的贵金属基金市场情绪仍偏向于谨慎。
【技术面分析】
我们大田金业认为：由日K线图上看，现货黄金沿着5日均线下行，虽然暂时还没有发现有触底迹象，但是跌势已经开始趋缓，同时重心有所上移，说明短期内黄金再度大幅下跌的可能性不大。同时MACD绿柱量能继续缩短，预示着黄金的做空力量继续衰竭。由于今晚美国的非农就业数据将会指引金价的短期走向，虽然黄金价格跌势已经开始减缓，但是如果今晚的非农就业数据好于市场预期，金价恐会再度出现下挫，建议投资者今日暂时观望为主。
做空：1278 止损1286 止盈1270
做多：1286 止损 1281 止盈1295
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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