3.28国际现货黄金价格走势分析（2014）
关键字：3.28国际现货黄金价格走势分析（2014）
行情回顾：欧洲时段，市场交投清淡，ICE美元指数在80.0-80.50窄幅震荡；非美货币方面英镑表现最强，主要因为零售销售数据超出预期；贵金属继续回落，黄金短暂跌破1300美元，北美早盘小幅反弹，银价回落至20整数位下方。
美国上周初请失业金人数为31.1万，小幅低于前值32万，也好于市场预期32.5万，四季度GDP年率终值从2.4%小幅上修至2.6%，但低于预期2.7%。通胀水平维持低迷，四季度PCE年率终值小幅上修至1.1%，GDP平减指数年率终值则维持在1.6%。尽管美国经济在2013年下半年进入加速复苏的轨道，但这并没有对总体物价构成足够的上行压力，无论以核心PCE还是核心CPI衡量的通货膨胀率均显著低于央行长期目标，若通胀在2014年仍维持在当前较低水平，美联储可能不得不在更长时间内维持零利率政策。与之前数周行情相似，好于预期的美国数据并未支持美元上涨，ICE美元指数继续受阻重要阻力80.50。
北美时段关注美国2月未决房屋销售和3月堪萨斯联储制造业活动指数，预计数据仍难以显著影响美元和商品走势。周五美国将公布2月个人收入和个人消费支出，尽管美国经济在年初受到恶劣天气的干扰，但实际个人收入仍意外实现强劲增长，由于实际收入是决定消费支出的核心因素之一，而消费是推动美国经济复苏的关键动力，所以表现强劲的结果将有望进一步提振对美国经济前景的乐观信心。目前市场预期2月个人收入和消费支出均增长0.3%，好于预期的结果有助于提振美元测试80.50，并加重贵金属下行压力，若持续破败美元将重拾中期跌势，低于预期的数据将提前为美元短期反弹修正画上句号，后一种情况或有助于缓解贵金属面临的下行压力。后市密切关注金价是否有效下破1300，若本周收盘价低于1300则确认有效下破，意味着中短期趋势再度转为向下。
金价暂时下破1300，关注是否有效下破，更下方支持是100日均线1270。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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