联储加息渐行渐近 现货黄金何去何从
关键字：现货黄金走势
【基本面】
上周一克里米亚公投结果揭晓，96.77%投票者赞成加入俄罗斯，而上周五俄罗斯总统普京签署了将克里米亚并入俄罗斯的条约，宣告克里米亚入俄的法律程序全部完成。这一切都在平稳有序的进行，并未出现军事冲突等意外事件，而欧美双方尽管极力否认公投结果，且在欧盟峰会上呼吁，若乌克兰局势恶化，需要做好对俄罗斯采取强力制裁措施的准备。但受到各国经济利益驱动，制裁举措相当温和，只对一些官员个体拒绝发放签证和冻结资产，并未涉及任何一家俄罗斯企业。趋稳的乌克兰风险当周未能引发金融市场 很大的波动，金价此前的一道安全门也被“无情”关上。
同时，美联储利率决议偏强硬的立场则打开了金价急剧下行的大门，对于黄金而言可谓是屋漏偏逢连夜雨。美联储如期维持联邦基金利率在0-0.25%不变，并削减100亿美元资产购买规模至550亿美元，同时宣布放弃6.5%失业率的前瞻指引。主要的骚动来自会后新闻发布会上美联储主席耶伦在应记者答问上称，结束购债后，将会有相当长一段时间保持利率在历史低位，相当长一段时间可能是六个月左右。也就意味着明年春季美联储将开启加息步伐，早于市场预期的秋季。同时，美联储对于经济前景仍然乐观，且美联储内部持强硬立场的人数也在增加，鹰派气息渐浓也让金价嗅到了危险的信号。尽管随后多名美联储官员发言对耶伦有关“六个月”进行解释，但市场预期并未因此改变，而是倾向更理性的等待进一步美国经济表现的印证。
【技术分析】
国际现货黄金震荡走低，上周曾在1330美元/盎司上方获得短暂的支撑，但随着中国PMI数据的公布，金价跌破1330美元/盎司一线，并极有可能试探1320美元/盎司的支撑力度，投资者应密切关注该位置对金价的支撑情况。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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