中国和乌克兰担忧主导市场 现货黄金暂高位整理
关键字：现货黄金行情
【基本面】
北美时段公布的美国2月零售销售月率增长0.3%，为三个月以来首次录得增长，略高于预期的0.2%，前值下降0.4%；2月核心零售销售月率亦增长0.3%，好于预期，表明消费者开始摆脱恶劣天气影响增加消费支出，视为美国经济改善的初步信号。同时公布的上周初请失业金人数从32.3万进一步降至31.5万，低于预期。不过美股期货在两项利好数据后反应平淡，显示交易者目前没有太大的交易意愿。
非农后由于缺乏重要基本面的推动市场整体走势略显沉闷。中国和乌克兰相关担忧主导市场短期行情。尤其是过去两个交易日以铜价大跌引发的连锁担忧以及西方将向俄罗斯制裁的消息一度引发避险情绪升温，引发全球股市的一波抛售潮。不过从昨日北美时段开始，股市再次企稳反弹，表明这两大事件仅构成地区风险，对全球风险情绪的影响十分有限，尤其是乌克兰事件，由于局势没有恶化迹象，投资者仍保持镇定。不过近期市场情绪飘忽不定，仍需要对位居高位的美股保持谨慎。
美国方面，本周美国方面的数据或消息乏善可陈，投资者料将更多的关注放在下周美联储利率决议上（3月19-20日）。由于这是耶伦首秀，且上周公布的美国2月非农就业数据改善，失业率接近美联储的加息门坎6.5%，市场对耶伦是否将修改前瞻性指引以及是否将加快削减QE规模最为关注。
【技术分析】
4小时图两均线粘合走平于1371一线，附图指标MACD有金叉缩量运行于高位，两线粘合于高位，上方关注1376一线的压制。
十一点收取实体大阴线，黄金现货价格K线运行于MA10均线附近，上方早间的一波上涨，最高触及小时图布林上轨一线，现在前面3根K线形式黄昏之星形态，当然还是要关注1小时图的上行通道能否成功守住。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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