美国经济数据疲弱 但防止黄金现货价格反转行情
关键字：美国经济数据、黄金现货价格
【基本面】
数据显示美国2月ADP私营部门就业人数增加13.9万，远低于市场预期的16万，前值从17.5万下修至12.7万。数据后美股期货反应平淡，短暂停顿后继续反弹，显示美股继续忽略疲弱数据走高。23：00还将公布美国2月ISM非制造业指数。预计数据影响有限，投资者将更加期待周五非农就业数据来评定美国经济前景。尽管近期美国数据普遍走软，但市场仍对美国经济前景抱有乐观预期，认为一旦恶劣天气影响结束，美国经济将再度走强。这也是市场对美股看涨情绪如此坚挺的主要因素。
其他方面，2月欧元区服务业PMI指数由1月的51.6升至52.6，预期51.7，综合产出指数由52.9升至53.3。1月零售销售环比增长1.6%，为2001年11月以来最大涨幅，12月为下跌1.3%。数据进一步提供该地区经济增长走强的信号，利好风险情绪。不过欧洲股市昨日大涨后今日小幅回撤。总体上，市场积极消息占据主导，但也不能忽视潜在的负面因素，对目前美股创新高的涨势依然需要保持谨慎。昨日文章提到过目前零售投资者看涨情绪已飙升至66.9%，高于历史均值60%，这通常作为反向指标，值得警惕。
【技术分析】
黄金K线在5日附近波动，下触10日线支撑。从日MACD已经在高位死叉，预示行情需要回调，现在还不能确定是不是反转。因为K线任然在20日线、60日线和布林中轨的上方。如果5日和10日都下穿20日，且K值运动到布林中轨之下，那基本确立日线的空头来临。K线在没有运动布林中轨下方，找一个适当的位置做单，多空都可以获利，是套不住。
不过总的来说，以高开空为主，开多为辅。从4小时，1小时和30分钟的技术指标来看，布林都在横盘中，多空都套不住，高抛低吸。但是大田金业分析师提醒，防止反转行情，短线尽量在高位做空为主。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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