黄金现货行情承压 关注耶伦听证会
关键字：黄金现货行情
从目前来看，美联储不大可能因为一两次存在天气影响的非农数据不及预期，就改变其退出QE的原计划，但在其它工具上面做文章的可能却不是没有。差于预期的非农数字确实能令市场对美联储货币政策的前景预期偏向宽松，但偏向何种程度的宽松，对市场影响力有多少，也许我们需要打个问好了？在美联储3月会议前，我们尚需等待一期非农报告出炉，如果说12月与1月就业市场的低迷是存在天气原因的，那我们就应当在2月报告中看到就业人数变化的大幅反弹。反言之，如果下个月出炉的2月非农报告再度不及预期，那么很可能意味着美国劳动力市场真的出了问题，届时市场反应也会比现在更大。 另外值得注意的是，上周五S&P 500收涨1.33%，而美国10年期国债收益率则下滑2个基点至2.68%。半年多来，风险事件出炉时美股的走势变得越来越难于预测，一方面基本面与预期收益主导着供应面，另一方面美联储货币政策前景又从货币流动性上控制了需求。但不管怎么说，像昨日美股与美债市场双双走高的情况毕竟难于持久，中期来看美股市场仍处于盘整期，而在美联储收紧流动性之际，债券牛市则有消退之象。美国国债与黄金具有高度关联性，特别是当美联储通过债券市场为宏观经济注入流动性的时候，而在美联储削减QE之际，当国债收益率开始走高，“削减”将真正开始发挥作用，而黄金则很可能承压。本周存在诸如耶伦听证会、美国零售销售报告等重要风险事件，但总体影响程度不及非农报告或美联储议息会议，基本面风险不强。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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