现货黄金出现流动性回暖 罗杰斯言长线做多
关键字：国际现货黄金交易
【行情回顾】
亚市午盘，国际现货黄金上破1218（27日高点和21均线）的阻力，短线最高录得1227.60美元/盎司，创12月19日以来新高，同时令12月20日和12月31日的触底反弹更具说服力。
【基本面分析】
随着2014年第一个早市开盘，2013年岁末冷清的现货黄金交易资金流通性开始回暖，但由于美国方面正式步入减少买债阶段，本日也预期市场经济逐渐复苏，故现货黄金价格有机会下试1180美元关口甚至冲破下探1100美元或更低，若要黄金真正走向牛市便首先要突破1530美元分水岭，黄金作为国际重要投资品种，长远来看黄金是很有价值的投资产品。
由于美联储（FED）于2013年年末开始每月购买资产计划减少100亿美元，即减码量化宽松政策，美国股市扫除市场不确定性后大幅上涨，而金价则备受压力。罗杰斯认为，从长远来看美股终究因FED大量印刷美元而拖累，而黄金则是较好的避风港。
Mineweb 12月31日报导,罗杰斯在接受专访时指出,美股在FED宣布减码QE之后虽然摆脱盘整格局、展开另一波反弹,但未来恐怕无法避开下跌的厄运。 罗杰斯认为,FED已困在“QE减码行动终于冲击到股市→央行官员又赶紧放宽货币政策“的恐怖循环当中,这会创造巨大泡沫或高度通膨的环境,而市场最后也会拒绝接受任何堪称垃圾的公债或者货币。他说,美国发现页岩油、进而压抑能源价格,是该国通膨受到控制的唯一因素。
在黄金方面,罗杰斯认为本季(1-3月)还不是买进黄金的时间点,主要是受到印度对黄金维持关税的影响,长期而言则做多黄金为主。
【技术分析】
从短线上看，1220为第一阻力位，破位可上试1240，视乎上破后能否逢高做空，或收复1267关口。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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