多国提前休市 金价短期站稳1200
关键字：金价反弹回调、国际现货黄金价格
【行情分析】
本日是2013年最後一个交易日。除了日本外，德国、意大利以及瑞士市场也将休市。而在这最後一个交易日里，预计市场并不会发生重要的波动。
早盘时段，商品货币延续了昨日的反弹势头。值得注意的是，在这几个月来商品货币的走弱中，纽元在其中表现最为抢眼。市场对於纽储行的加息预期强烈。记得在之前利率决议的声明中，纽储行表态将维持2.5%基准利率至年底，而且有可能於明年加息。换言之，明天开始，纽储行就有可能提高利率。而根据澳新银行的报告，该行预计纽储行在2014年1月上调官方现金利率的概率接近100%。这种预期对於纽元汇率而言，无疑是一个巨大的支撑。目前汇市一个月以及三个月的预期波动性纷纷上涨到了四季度以来的最高水平，根据之前的走势，在汇市波动率高的时候，往往美元将得到提振，而本日则录得英镑/美元触及日内新高1.6516。
【技术分析】
国际现货黄金自昨日开盘1215后持续全线下跌，至纽盘末段，下方再次跌破1200关口最低1195附近，虽然没重大消息面影响，但却录得20美元的跌幅。
日线图上4小时DIF下穿DEA形成死叉并开始运行于0轴下方，stock在低位交叉后继续有下行的趋势，日线stock在高位也开始勾头，整体仍呈弱势；同时今天也是2013年最后一个交易日，月线收官即将完成，就目前来看K线预计不会出现太大变动，值得重视是欧元愈发强劲，可黄金仍在昨日录得低位，特别是4小时有着强烈的下行趋势。
本日需关注下行前期底部1180-1190一线的支撑力度，可在1195位置轻仓做多，止损1191.5，目标1200-1203美元。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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