现货黄金走势脆弱 将跌入下一低点
关键字：现货黄金走势
【基本面】
美国早盘公布了一批美国房屋数据，包括9、10、11月新屋开工和美国11月营建许可数据，除9月新屋开工月率下滑1.1%表现不佳外，其他房屋数据均有不错的表现，如11月新屋开工月率大幅增长了22.7%。数据表明美国房屋市场继续复苏。结合此前公布的美国11月非农就业数据以及制造业PMI等多项经济指标，经济全面复苏增加了美联储削减QE的风险。不过美股期货在利好数据后维持升势，与11月非农就业数据后的意外上涨类似，表明市场对美国经济和美股前景的乐观情绪盖过了美联储削减QE所引发的潜在负面情绪。
对于此次利率决议，市场看法不一。彭博社调查显示仅有31%的经济学家预计美联储今晚将开始削减QE规模，因此持这种预期的市场参与者并不占多数，主要理由是低迷的通胀使得美联储会再次推迟削减QE时间至明年第一季度。不过除削减QE之外，前瞻性指引是否将发生改变也值得关注。主要的焦点集中在削减QE规模、是否将考虑下调存款准备金率以及强化低利率指引上。由于所涉问题负责，因此市场的反应可能较为复杂。
【行情分析】
昨日黄金走势含有重要的技术意义。11月21日以来，实物黄金下行趋势有所停滞，转而出现了长达近一个月的盘整，并在月内形成了三角整固区间，而昨日的走势则意味着三角形态下破，金价短期内仍然脆弱，不排除进一步跌破月内低点的可能。黄金现报1220.7美元每盎司，早盘小幅反弹2.7美元。下方关注1211.4的前度低位，前度三角型态支持线则约位于上方1229.7的位置。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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