QE或失去影响力 黄金反弹 建议逢高做空
关键字：黄金反弹
【基本面】
周一晚间有三位美联储委员相继发表讲话，暗示美联储仍有可能在12月开始削减资产购买，圣路易斯联储主席布拉德肯定了近期就业数据的改善，然而对通胀膨胀持续低靡提出警告，这让外界普遍猜测即使美联储在12月份削减QE，削减幅度也相对有限。货币政策预期并未提振美元，美元走弱短期内支持贵金属上行修正。周二中国政府公布众多重量级经济数据，11月零售销售同比增长13.7%，高于前值13.3%，11月工业生产同比增长10.0%，小幅低于前值10.3%但符合市场预期，1-11月固定资产投资同比增长19.9%。
北美时段缺乏重要数据和风险事件，短期行情可能延续，ICE美元指数正在测试80整数位支持，若下破则可能跌向前期低点78.60-79，贵金属则有望进一步反弹，黄金和白银日图价格均已站上10/20日均线，确认打开反弹空间。本周后半段最重要的美国数据为11月零售销售和生产者物价指数。好于预期的结果固然为美国经济增添光彩，弱于预期的数据却难以动摇投资者对美国前景的信心，预计上述数据对汇市和商品市场影响有限，对美国国债市场的影响可能较大。
【技术分析】
市场经济数据匮乏，虽然美联储多位官员发表了有关或将削减QE的言论，但是市场对此反映平淡，可能QE削减这一长期主导市场的预期可能已经失去影响力。四小时图显示，黄金反弹暂时受阻于压力线，而这一位置目前刚好位于日图布尔带中轨1250下方附近，因此突破1250这一阻力位后续有进一步反弹空间，可跟进做多，上方潜在阻力分别为1269、1286等菲波位。而若突破失败回落，由于整体趋势依旧偏空，则继续寻机逢高做空，下方潜在支撑分在日图布尔布尔带下轨1210、整数位1200。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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