12.10现货黄金价格走势分析（2013）
关键字：
行情回顾：欧洲时段，市场交投清淡，欧元维持强势，ICE美元指数小幅下跌，贵金属低位震荡。
【基本面】
美国就业市场加速改善，11月非农新增就业人数达到20.3万，修正后数据显示今年1-11月非农月均新增就业人数回升至18.9万，接近美联储委员目标20万，11月失业率更意外降至7.0%。远超预期的数据无疑增加美联储提前削减QE的可能性，30天联邦基金期货隐含利率显示，市场参与者对FOMC加速撤出宽松的预期显著升温。美国10年期国债收益率升至2.85%，然而经济基本面和货币政策预期并未显著提振美元，ICE美元指数依旧上行乏力，相反周图价格在81.50-81.80长期阻力位持续破败后下行风险进一步上升。日内有三位地区联储主席相继发表讲话，或为政策前景提供指引，值得投资者关注。从过去数周走势来看，美元对QE削减该系统性风险的敏感性已经大幅下降 (与6月低和7月初相比) ，即使美联储暗示可能在12月份削减资产购买或也难以推动美元走强。黄金价格和ICE美元指数30天相关性为-0.55，负相关关系短期内有所减弱，若美元重新转为走弱有望为黄金市场价格提供反弹动能。
黄金租赁利率(GLR)有所上升，1个月GLR升至0.1895%，月初时仅为0.1%，3个月GLR升至0.2309%，与月初水平0.18%相比升幅显著，融资成本增加将降低储金银行借入和卖出黄金的意愿，有助于减少黄金现货市场的未来供给，或缓解金价下行压力；租赁利率有时也被部分分析师作为衡量工业需求的重要指标，若珠宝商和黄金矿商预期未来销量将出现上升，那么他们愿意以租赁利率借入黄金并推动租赁利率上升，从该角度讲下游工业需求短期内有回升趋势。截止至12月2号CFTC期货持仓显示，黄金非商业期货空头头寸继续上升，导致净多头占未平仓比例降至5.87%，接近2005年低点4.38%和2013年7月低点3.84%，显示市场看清倾向依旧维持在极端水平，当上述指标接近极端位置时往往被视为价格强烈修正的领先信号。综合上述分析，大田金业分析师认为金价短期进一步大幅下行的空间可能受到限制，相反美元走弱和市场情绪达到极限反而令现货黄金存在上行修正风险，建议中线投资者暂时观望，若金价显著反弹则高位做空；短线投资者不妨尝试做多，将止损设置于上周低点1210下方，短期目标位可看至1300整数位。
【技术分析】
金价短期低位盘整，日图CCI与价格背离暗示上行修正风险，上方阻力关注20日均线1250，上破则有望进一步反弹测试50日均线1285和1300整数位。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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