12.2现货黄金价格走势分析（2013）
关键字：12.2现货黄金价格走势分析（2013）
行情回顾：欧洲时段，美元依旧疲软，欧元区通胀数据好于预期为欧元提供支持，ICE美元指数小幅下跌0.1%，推动贵金属反弹修正，黄金重回1250上方，白银测试20整数位。
【基本面】
欧元区11月调和消费者物价指数年率从0.7%回升至0.9%，小幅高于市场预期0.8%，核心调和CPI年率从0.8%升至1.0%，这无疑降低了投资者对欧央行推出进一步刺激的预期。为了维护稳定物价欧央行不惜将基准利率降至0.25%的历史低点。下周四欧央行举行12月利率决议，此前部分投资者猜测货币政策委员会可能在12月决议中采取更加激进的货币政策，如实行负存款利率或推出新的长期再融资操作 (LTRO) ，经济数据持续好转和总体物价企稳回升无疑降低了上述可能性。德拉吉在新闻发布会上的讲话仍是关注重点，欧元区经济前景继续改善，PMI数据显示欧元区制造业和服务业在四季度初加速扩张，周四公布的11月经济信心指数升至98.5创2011年8月以来最高水平，德拉吉对未来经济和通胀前景的评论可能更加乐观，其讲话是决定政策预期的重要因素。
总体而言欧元相对强劲，欧元/美元企稳1.36整数位上方，资金青睐欧元无疑制约美元反弹空间，ICE美元指数继续受阻长期阻力位81.50-81.80。除欧央行决议外，美国下周将公布三季度GDP修正值和11月非农报告，有望为美元提供短期指引。市场预期美国三季度经济增速从2.8%升至3.1%，11月非农新增就业人数增加18.3万，11月失业率从7.3%小幅回落至7.2%，好于预期的结果可能刺激提前削减QE升温，有望提振美元反弹并打压黄金下跌，届时继续关注ICE美元指数能否上破81.50-81.80，只有有效上破才能打开上行空间，否则中期内美元仍面临转为走弱的风险；低于预期的数据无疑加重美元下行空间，或提振黄金继续反弹修正，这将提供更好的高位做空机会。
【技术分析】
金价反弹测试10日均线，RSI暗示进一步上行修正风险，上破10日均线有望测试20日均线1270，反弹破败建议逢高做空。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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