11.13黄金价格走势分析（2013）
关键字：11.13黄金价格走势分析（2013）
行情回顾：欧洲时段，市场交投清淡，除英国通胀数据意外走弱打压英镑下跌外，主要非美货币，美元和金属产品均缺乏波动，贵金属小幅走弱，短期延续区间震荡。
【基本面】
英国10月CPI年率从2.7%降至2.2%，核心CPI年率从2.2%降至1.7%，远低于经济学家预期2.5%和2.0%， 通胀下滑令宽松预期升温，进而导致英镑承压下跌，不过对汇市和商品市场整体影响有限。继欧元区和美国之后，英镑成为通胀下滑的主要工业化国家，前期数据显示，欧元区10月CPI年率从1.1%意外降至0.7%，美国9月PCE年率则从1.2%降至0.9%，均远低于央行长期目标2%。通货膨胀萎靡不振可能揭示了上述国家真实下游需求弱于经济数据所呈现的水平，或者可以说美国和欧洲经济复苏仍过于温和，以至于无法拉动总体物价水平上升，在这种情况下央行可能更倾向于维持极度宽松的货币政策。
美联储在9月利率决议拒绝削减QE打压指数进一步下跌，不过随后在中期重要支持位78.60-79获得支持并在过去两周强劲反弹，目前指数仍在测试该重要阻力位，在未上破之前应该继续认为美元长期趋势倾向向下，短期上涨只是对8月以来中期下跌的技术性修正。关注长期上行趋势线能否提供有效阻力，上破则可能打开进一步反弹空间，持续受阻则可能重新转为走弱，或有望在短期内为黄金提供一定支持。
【技术分析】
金价日图价格测试6月末上行趋势线，关注能否下破，下破则可能进一步跌至10月低点1251美元，企稳则有望反弹，上方阻力关注100日均线1320和下行趋势线1333。
美元继续全线走强，打压黄金维持弱势， 不过技术上看目前不宜进一步做空，投资者暂时应维持观望。日图显示黄金昨日小幅走弱，但下跌将临近两道潜在支撑，分别是布林带下轨（位于1274），再就是6月低点与10月低点结成的支撑线（现位于1270），因金价现已跌破1270，分析师预料将打开进一步下行空间。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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