11.11黄金价格走势分析（2013）
关键字：11.11黄金价格走势分析（2013）
行情回顾：欧洲时段，继欧央行利率决议和美国三季度GDP后，非农报告再度超出市场预期，推动美元指数百尺竿头更进一步，非美和商品再度承压，黄金跌破1300触及10月17号以来新低，白银下行测试21整数字。
【基本面】
美国10月非农月均新增就业达到20.4万，而此前经济学家和分析师给出的预测值普遍维持在10-12.5万，尽管把政府关闭期间暂时解雇的政府工作人员统计在内，10月失业率仅小幅回升至7.3%，与上次联邦政府停摆相比，财政僵局对就业市场几无影响。让投资者感到更加意外的是，8月非农新增就业从19.3万向上调整至23.8万，而9月非农则从14.8万向上调整至16.3万，导致三季度月均新增就业人数回升至16.3万，过去三个月月均就业人数更超过20万。意外上修的就业数据说明，美国就业改善的速度并未放缓，中期内改善步伐更呈现加速的迹象，这与下游产出加速扩张一致，周四公布的美国三季度GDP年率增长2.8%，同样远超市场预期2.0%。美元再度获得上行动能，ICE美元指数后市有望指向81.50-82区间，10年期国债收益率则上升10基点至2.71%。
经济前景改善，就业市场强劲扩张无疑显著影响投资者的货币政策预期，美联储削减定量宽松的时间表可能再度提前，伯南克和其它货币政策委员此前一直强调是否削减QE取决于经济数据。美元指数短期内有望继续上行，考虑到美元和黄金短期高度负相关，金价无疑面临进一步回落的风险。北美时段美联储主席伯南克将在IMF经济论坛上发表讲话，届时伯老可能对非农和就业市场作出评论，值得密切关注。
【技术分析】
日图价格短期持续受阻100日均线，时段内大幅走弱，后市可能下行测试6月末上行趋势线1270，上方阻力是1322 (100日均线) 。
黄金日内大幅下跌，跌破1300美元/盎司重要关口打开进一步下行空间，逢高做空。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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