10.23黄金白银价格走势分析（2013）
关键字：10.23黄金价格走势分析（2013）
【基本面】
欧洲时段，美国非农报告主导市场走势，就业数据再度走弱令ICE美元指数严重承压，非美货币和商品价格纷纷大涨，金价触及三周新高1337美元，银价最高上涨至22.80。
美国9月非农新增就业人数仅为14.8万，远低于经济学家广泛预期18万，8月新增就业从16.9万上修至19.3万，7月新增就业则从10.4万下修至8.9万。前期公布的与非农报告高度正相关的ADP就业报告也呈现同样的结果，预期与现实的巨大落差打压美元指数大幅下挫，与此同时10年期国债收益率迅速降至2.55%。值得庆幸的是9月失业率意外降至7.2%，创2008年11月以来最低水平，此外9月劳动参与率维持在63.2%，8月份劳动参与率一度降至35年低点，显示寻找工作的人数在中期内持续下滑，众多分析师和经济学家都将劳动参与率的下降而非就业市场的改善作为失业率回落的主要原因。修正后数据显示，今年1-9月非农月均新增就业人数为17.8万，仅略高于去年同期17.4万，三季度月均非农新增就业人数更低至14.3万，可见本就温和的就业改善步伐在三季度进一步放缓，这无疑降低了美联储在短期内削减定量宽松的可能性，投资者甚至应该怀疑，除非四季度就业市场意外加速改善，否则FOMC可能将削减QE的时间窗口延后至明年一季度。
【行情分析】
黄金价格已经有效突破并打开短期上行空间，再加上获得基本面(疲软的非农数据)的支持，短期内金价确有进一步反弹的风险。然而黄金ETF持仓量持续下降已经明确暗示投资者缺乏做多黄金的信心，缺乏多头资金的累积金价上行恐怕难以为继。
【技术分析】
金价短期企稳10/20日均线，日图价格时段内上破100日均线，后市或有望上行测试1342和1364 (斐波那契50%和61.8%回调线) ，密切关注能否上破，上破则可能进一步反弹至1400整数字，持续破败建议高位做空。
银价短期持稳10/20日均线上方，时段内进一步上行测试50日均线和长期下行趋势线，关注该位置能否提供有效阻力，破败可尝试逢高做空，下方支持关注21.75和21.40。
推荐阅读：
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
最新内容
Risk Warning
Trading bullion and financial instruments carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, requiring careful consideration of investment objectives, experience, and risk tolerance. Key risks include market volatility, leverage risks that can amplify gains or losses, liquidity issues that may prevent executing trades at desired prices, and technical failures in online trading systems. Prices fluctuate unpredictably, and past performance does not guarantee future results. CIDT Global Bullion Limited provides general market commentary but does not offer investment advice and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its information, which may change without notice.
Jurisdiction Disclaimer
CIDT Global Bullion Limited's services are subject to local regulations and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with their local laws. Services are not provided in regions where they are prohibited by law, under international sanctions, or require licensing that the company does not hold. By using the platform, users confirm they are not in a restricted jurisdiction and accept full responsibility for legal compliance. The company reserves the right to decline or terminate services in restricted areas without prior notice.