黄金期货下跌仅暂时性 明年将冲1400
关键字：黄金期货
《金融时报》报导，根据「伦敦金银市场协会」(London Bullion Market Association) 调查，全球超过 20 家大型贵金属交易商、银行的多数分析师和投资者都认为今年黄金的下挫只是修正而已，并非是熊市的开端。
不过这份调查报告公布的同时，金价却因美国政府关门再度走低，再加上中国进入十一黄金周也抑制了黄金需求。
对黄金多头将造成冲击的事件，为17天之后的举债上限之争。若17天内，关门事件未获解决，美国信用评等可能遭到调降，经济将受挫，对美国的信心亦将下滑。
今年以来金价已经下挫达 23%，今年将会是自 2000 年以来金价首度全年收低的年度。
黄金今年以来表现低迷，整年趋势一路走低，六月份时一度跌破每盎司 1200 美元价位，不过黄金专家们认为今年黄金猛烈的跌势将可暂获喘息，金价持稳撑过今年后，明年将再度冲上 1400 美元。
过去几年美国联储局实行的超宽松货币政策是推高金价的一大原因，因市场担忧通膨来袭，选择躲进黄金避险。不过今年联准会开始准备收拢宽松政策，黄金趋势也反转向下，各 ETF 的持有部位皆大幅下滑。
不过多数的投资银行都认为 2014 年黄金趋势将会有所改善，当前美国政府关门的窘局甚至被部份分析师认为是黄金的利多因素。
纽约12月黃金下跌40.90美元，或3.1%，收於每盎司1286.10美元。創6月26日以來，近月合約最大單日跌幅，周一，黃金下跌12.20美元，或近1%，收於每盎司1327美元。但本季則上漲。
分析师表示，政府短暂关闭，只会对经济造成最小冲击，不会改变联准会(Fed)缩减量化宽松的时间表。此外，更重要的是二周后的举债上限。Fed要的是通货膨胀，但尽管运用各式量化宽松，却无法获得通货膨胀，黄金因而下跌。
周二在黄金期货市场，成交量非常高，一家大型基金重新调整黄金部位。
亦有分析师表示，若预算僵局延续至下周，可能对美元造成负面影响，为黄金引进避险需求。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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