经济学家Campbell Harvey称历史趋势及需求势头表明黄金可能延续下跌500美元
据CNCB报道，周一杜克大学教授Campbell Harvey在接受采访时表示，长期来看，黄金可能跌破每盎司800美元，自目前每盎司1294美元水准下跌约500美元。
Harvey说，逾2500年历史以来，黄金的实际价格(名目价格经通货膨胀调整后)一直都约相同。
“目前，黄金价格大幅高于平均价格，”Harvey说，显示长期而言，黄金价格可能修正至每盎司约800美元。
“历史上，黄金不只会下跌至平均价格，还会跌破该水准，而后反弹，”他说。
因而，黄金价格也可能跌破800美元，他说。“在近来的历史上，黄金价格曾经更低。”
“或许不是明天，”Harvey补充说到。“周期是10到15年，现在已进入这周期之一，”
他说思索金价的投资人，焦点应在需求，而非供给。他说需求的”持续性让人惊讶”。
中国周一公布的数据显示，经济成长减缓至7.5%，证明了成长减缓，是一项黄金需求可能降低的指标。
“中国是黄金需求国家，成长减缓意味需求降低，”Harvey说。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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