2013年6月20日白银基本面分析及操作建议
市场消息回顾
美联储周三（6月19日）在为期两天的联邦公开市场委员会会议结束后发布会议决议宣布，将坚持每月购买850亿美元债券的计划，同时，联邦基金利率水平则一如预计继续保持在0-0.25%的超低水平。美联储重申，自去年秋季以来经济前景状况以及就业市场面临的风险因素已很大程度上得到消除，而近期几个月来就业市场状况已进一步好转，但失业率仍居高不下。这使得美联储有意愿在在就业市场出现进一步明显改善之前维持资产购买力度。
美联储主席伯南克在美联储发布政策决议之后就经济及货币政策现状及前景状况发表了讲话，并暗示若美国经济复苏势头继续延续，当前的量化宽松购债措施或在明年告一段落。
伯南克指出，美联储在结束当前的资产收购措施后，要再过上很久才会开始加息。但如果经济前景状况符合美联储当前所作出的预期，那么量化宽松措施的规模很有可能在年内就会开始缩小，并可能在明年中期就彻底结束。而他预计，在购债结束之际，美国总体失业率料维持在7%上下。
展望：今天凌晨美联储公布了利率决议，维持之前850亿美元债券计划不变，同时继续保持0-0.25%的超低水平的利率。伯南克新闻发布会讲话表示，如果经济前景状况符合美联储当前所作出的预期，那么量化宽松措施的规模很有可能在年内就会开始缩小，并可能在明年中期就彻底结束。讲话内容表明在今年九月份或十二月份的美联储利率会议上将开始逐步退出宽松的政策，美国国债30年大牛市将被逆转，美元将中长期走强，对贵金属长期走势构成压力。
交易策略
操作思路：短线（1-2日）保守看空 中线（5-7日）积极看空长线（15-30日）暂时看空
今日日盘激进者白银在4240至4260元入市做空，止损4310元，目标4160,4100元。
激进者黄金在1350至1352美元入市做空，止损1356美元，目标1338,1325美元。（黄金为国际报价）市场倾向反弹后下跌晚盘行情不另行通知投资有风险，建议仅供参考。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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