黄金预计6月继续“荡秋千”
本报讯 随着金价大跌，有经济学家抛出“黄金泡沫论”，并认为泡沫还将继续破裂，金价会在近年跌至每盎司1000美元。从今年以来的月度行情看，以纽约期金价格为例，过去5个月中，纽约期金仅3月份飘红，跌幅较大的为4月和5月，而从4月、5月单月看，金价在每盎司1300美元附近支撑极强。分析人士称，黄金预计在6月还将延续“荡秋千”的盘整态势。
整个5月，国际现货黄金价格继续呈下跌之势，当月跌幅达6%。自2012年10月以来，金价仅在今年3月略有反弹，其余月份均以“阴线”报收。在经历4月暴跌行情之后，市场多空分歧严重，一方面，实物金需求的猛增对金价形成了一定的支撑，但另一方面，跌破1500美元/盎司整数关口、机构投资者减持黄金头寸势头不减等因素，也致使黄金5月走势呈现出震荡特征。
在黄金大跌时，投资者开始担忧黄金会一蹶不振。5月黄金再次经历了疯狂的暴跌之后，逐步呈现出了弱势震荡的态势，金价最低曾探至1322美元/盎司，也曾超跌反弹至1480美元/盎司，而目前黄金慢慢站上了1400美元/盎司的重要关口。
金价“荡秋千”式的盘整令投资者逻辑难寻。光大期货分析师孙永刚认为，纵然伯南克提出了未来制定退出QE的计划，也不能改变市场对于美股的疯狂追逐，可是市场的逻辑其实已经渐渐改变，在全球大多数投资者都改口承认黄金熊市，认为黄金将瞬间一蹶不振之时，黄金却重新站上了1400美元/盎司的心理关口，而这种转变其实暗示了市场逻辑的改变。
“但这并不意味着黄金的下行就已经结束了。”孙永刚说，它仅仅只是一个阶段性的反弹过程而已，黄金长周期的弱势在经济周期的主导转变之下早已注定，而目前市场投资逻辑渐变的过程中，美股无疑是一个重要的指示器，而这种资金疯狂追逐之下的危机其实已经渐渐来临，而市场的心态却依然乐观。
来自中国证券报
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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