由于政策影响 印度黄金进口退居第二
关键字：印度政策、印度黄金进口
印度由于政策的影响，黄金进口量目前退居全球第二。不过，印度珠宝富商T.S. Kalyanaraman预期，印度的黄金进口量有望在今(2014)年下半年反弹，主因新上任的政府可能会放松贸易管制，而节庆与婚礼也料将刺激需求上扬。
彭博社26日报导，Kalyan Jewellers Ltd.董事长T.S. Kalyanaraman在接受专访时表示，黄金进口量有望在今年年中开始上扬，进而让全年度的进口量提升至与去年相似的水位(825吨)。他说，生病时当然需要注射抗生素，但这只是暂时性的作法，相信政府很快就会放松限制。Kalyanaraman说，若加入走私进口的黄金，印度的需求应较中国大陆高出40-50%。他说，印度本地有许多小型、零散的珠宝商在买卖时并未开收据，也因此未受官方纪录。
印度总理Manmohan Singh去年三度调高黄金进口税率、还紧缩了融资法令，希望能藉此让创下历史新高的经常帐赤字稍稍缩减，并令卢比止跌回稳。这些做法成功缩减了黄金进口量、而卢比也开始反弹，促使印度去年第4季的经常帐萎缩到至少四年新低。印度需求反弹有望为金价提高支撑。根据世界黄金协会(WGC)去年12月发表的统计报告，中国去年黄金首饰、金币/金条需求分别年增29%、38%，带动该国超越印度成为全球最大黄金消费国。
中国去年黄金整体需求量年增32%至创纪录的1,066公吨；印度官方虽设下诸多进口限制，但该国需求依旧呈现上扬，WGC预估非官方进口数量几乎较2012年增加一倍。印度经济时报曾在1月17日报导，商品投资大师吉姆罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)认为，贵金属已经累积了大笔空单，2013年的严重跌价让所有人都变得悲观负面、态度转空，以此来看贵金属价格应该会出现反弹、但力道不会太强，他也不会在这波反弹中买进或卖出贵金属。罗杰斯当时预期，贵金属价格会在今(2014)年稍晚再度拉回，希望藉时可以打出漂亮的底部，那么大家就可以再度进场买进黄金。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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