圣诞周消息清淡 现货黄金走势维持看跌
关键字：现货黄金走势
【基本面】
美国11月耐用品月率3.5%，好于市场预期2.0%，商务部报告指出汽车和其它交通运输工具需求上升是数据改善的主要原因，剔除运输的核心耐用品订单月率为1.2%，也高于市场预期0.9%，非国防资本品新订单 (除飞机) 月率上升4.5%，创今年1月以来最大环比增幅，核心资本品订单是衡量未来商业投资的关键指标。周一公布的美国11月个人消费支出显著改善，日内数据再度确认投资前景更加明朗，无疑进一步提振投资者对美国经济前景的乐观信心。然而由于节假日导致市场交投下降，汇市和金属价格整体反应平淡，ICE美元指数在上周高点窄幅整理，美日小幅上行触及日内新高，国债市场波动相对较大，美10年期国债收益率上升3.5基点至2.966%。尽管美国经济和货币政策前景豁然开朗，但长期名义利率上升速度明显递减，此外必须认识到短期内美10年期国债收益率与ICE美元指数的正相关性已经完全被打破，长期名义利率与美元指数30天相关性降至-0.53，这与6月末和7月初的情况迥然不同 (长期利率与美元同时上涨) 。
【技术分析】
随着欧美圣诞节来临，市场步入消息匮乏的一周，但是越是在这种缺乏潜在消息提供支撑或压力的情况下，金价延续技术上的跌势的可能性就更大，因此继续持逢高做空的看跌策略。目前技术上，无论从周图还是日图看，布尔带都指示着趋势继续下行，布尔带呈继续扩张且周线和日线显示下跌紧随布尔带下轨，这些不同周期走势图显示的共同的特征都是金价跌势将延续的表现。四小时图显示，现货黄金反弹受阻布尔带中轨，投资者可继续尝试做空，已有空头可继续持有。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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