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波浪理论专家:黄金将迎来一轮超跌反弹

关键字:黄金反弹

现货黄金价格隔夜因美元反弹再次收盘走低,不过假期临近,金价近几日维持在周一低点1223.59美元/盎司上方窄幅整理。目前有太多的机构看空黄金后市,但美国知名债券基金经理,波浪理论专家Ramki Ramakrishnan却指出,黄金可能迎来一轮超跌反弹,投资者可做参考。

从GLD周线图走势来看,市场正处在大型调整浪阶段,调整浪分为三个阶段,分别用ABC浪来标示,目前金价正处在C浪尾声阶段。根据波浪理论,C浪均以5浪推动浪的形势展开。目前来看,C浪已部分完成了第4子浪,预计金价多半会迎来阶段性反弹。而在这之后,5浪的最后一跌将呈现在世人眼前。

从小时图上看,一旦当前的次级5浪结构走完,市场可能迎来3.16美元/盎司以上的反弹幅度,理由是原则上调整浪应与4浪等长。

另一种可能是,调整浪会延伸至第4浪起始位置,那么反弹幅度将达到5美元。

Ramki Ramakrishnan表示,这并不意味着人们应该加码GLD基金多头,但持有空仓的投资者有必要避免金价的这一段反弹过程,并等待合适的实际再次做空。市场中长期测试115美元低位或者跌破该位的可能性依旧很高。

补充:对于美国当地投资者而言,SPDR黄金指数基金(GLD)是主要的黄金投资参与方式,SPDR黄金ETF基金也是全球最大的黄金背景基金。该黄金基金的资金今年的资金流出量相当于450吨现货金,这无疑会对基金价格产生冲击,分析人士也认为GLD基金将进一步走软。

 

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