南非标银：实物金需求疲弱 不容乐观
关键字：实物黄金
周二南非标准银行(Standard Bank)在报告中指出，尽管近三周来国际金价持续游走于1300美元下方且今年6月及7月实物黄金流动指数曾出现大幅上涨，但近期全球(特别是亚洲)的实物金需求却没有起色。上海黄金交易所近期的黄金溢价表现也不容乐观。
标准银行分析师Walter de Wet认为，“短期仅凭着实物黄金需求是无法推动金价持续上扬的，这主要是因为市场对美联储退出宽松的预期不断升温。不过，眼下黄金ETF持仓外流速度略微放缓，如果未来该状况继续有所改善，结合实物金需求走强的影响或许能打破这一僵局。”
此外，Wet还称，“根据CFTC最新公布的数据显示，黄金现货市场上周新进了不少空头合约，因此若未来实物金需求能达到6月和7月的水平，则会引发大量的空头回补。就目前金价持续下跌的状况看，不排除部分投资者会抓住廉价的机会抄底。”
不过，Wet指出，预期今年四季度的实物金需求很难回到此前两季度的水平，因此依然建议在金价接近1300水平时逢高做空。当然，如果黄金需求突然大幅上升，这种操作方式存在一定风险。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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