南非标准银行：未来1年金价不可能大涨
关键字：金价大涨
南非标准银行在报告中指出，”从货币角度来看，我们认为目前金价估值较低，因此预计未来5年黄金价格将走高。然而，随着美联储不断实施量化宽松政策，美债收益率正维持上涨的趋势，这就意味着未来12个月内金价不可能出现太大涨幅。因此，从策略上看，我们预计第四季度金价的表现仍将不尽如人意，即便短期走强也会被投资者看做是逢高做空的机会。我们预计今年4季度黄金均价在1330美元/盎司。”
不过，该行补充道，”排除中国及印度的实物金需求支撑，金价似乎没有多少利好的基本面因素，我们预计美国10年期国债收益率将在未来12个月涨至4%，这可能令黄金ETF的投资者情绪更加偏空。”
该行强调，”不过，我们曾认为实物金需求将在9月初走强，然而，我们后来意识到今年的情况和往年不同。首先，随着印度卢比不断贬值，该国国内金价正接近历史高位，这不单单会打压印度的实物金买盘，同时也会刺激碎金的抛售。尽管当前因黄金已经历过一波大跌的行情，抛售情绪并不强烈，但近期汇价的变动可能会打破这一格局。其次，印度政府此前不断上调进口税，以抑制国内的黄金进口，因此4季度该国的实物金需求可能弱于去年同期。”
最后，该行表示，”目前，我们认为即便美联储在年底或明年2月份才开始缩减QE规模，未来12个月美债收益率也不会出现太大变动，因此黄金市场的空头氛围不会改变。长期来看，鉴于未来黄金ETF持仓将停止外流，实物金需求走强以及黄金生产成本的压力，预计黄金将稳步走强。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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