叶伦将当选美联储主席 黄金走势或受提振
关键字：美联储主席、黄金走势
在过去一周，美国的驴象两党的争论是所以全球各界人士关注的重点，不过今晚市场焦点将转移到北京时间凌晨2点美联储公布的9月货币政策会议纪要上，这次会议纪要显得非常的特殊，因为这是在美国政府关门的背景下开启的，我们需要重点关注美联储在债务危机和美国政府关门的背景下，如何最新的阐释有关缩减QE的规模性和时间性，同时也需要关注联储9月为何在最后关头改变初衷，作出不缩减资产购买计划规模这一决定的理由作出解释。
从今年晚些时候开始缩减量化宽松规模以来，利率一直都持续呈现出上升趋势；摇摆不定的美国住房市场；表现疲弱的就业数据；以及即将被触及的美国联邦政府借债上限等。这些都有可能是联储出尔反尔的重要原因。
总的看来，就目前而言，市场预期在联邦政府停摆和政府借债上限即将被触及的环境下，美联储不太可能会在10月份的政策会议上作出缩减量化宽松规模的决定。
奥巴马还将在此后的凌晨3点公布美联储下任主席提名，叶伦当选的可能就现在看来非常的大。一旦叶伦当选，未来政策走向或偏鸽派，叶伦一直以来都是宽松政策的强硬支持者，因此若其表态更为倾向宽松，将进一步利好非美货币和金银走势。
演绎这几次会议纪要的历史来看，若今晚会议纪要流露出更多将在10月或年内缩减QE的声音，将被市场视为鹰派，跳膝反应将提振美元、打压非美货币和黄金白银；而若美联储在纪要中流露更多对就业复苏势头不稳、低通胀、乃至债务违约的担忧，将打压美元，提振非美货币和黄金白银。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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