IMF下调全球经济预期 金价可望上涨
关键字：全球经济、金价上涨
《Kitco News》10月8日报导，丹麦盛宝银行（Saxo Bank）商品策略主管汉森（Ole Hansen）表示，今年第四季的全球经济表现预期将会更加疲弱，除了此前已经预期的新兴市场经济放缓之外，美国两党在预算与债务上限的争议以及美国联邦政府的关门，也将会令已开发国家的经济表现转弱，这些对于股市将会有负面影响，从而反过来对金价构成支撑，因投资人将寻求避险资产。
国际货币基金组织（IMF）8日下修全球经济展望，其中以往被看好的新兴市场国家大幅降温，欧洲持续在低档挣扎，而美国除了要应付联准会（FED）可能缩减购债规模的冲击外，其预算卡关、政务停摆，以及债务违约也可能对全球景气造成更多下行风险。这是IMF连续第6次下修全球成长预估。与7月时公布的预估值相比，2013年成长率减0.3个百分点至2.9%，2014年下调0.2个百分点至3.6%。
汉森预估今年底金价可望上涨至每盎司1,375美元，但随后可能在1,488美元触顶；汉森认为，金价必须重新拉抬至1,525美元以上价位，才可望恢复先前的上涨趋势。
美国政府关门对金价的影响在分析师中有不同看法。RJ O‘Brien贵金属部门主管Janet Mirasola在报告中称，由于美国政府关闭，黄金作为避险能力最佳的资产而将受到投资者的青睐。加拿大皇家银行（RBC）全球期货市场贵金属策略师George Gero则表示，政府关门将催生投资者对美国经济再度陷入停滞的担忧升温，但投资人可能会选择抛售黄金以此换取更多的现金。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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