巴克莱：黄金真正关键在美国债务上限
关键字：美国债务上限
巴克莱银行(Barclays)的分析师们认为，美国政府的关闭对黄金只有有限影响，真正的关键的在于美国债务上限问题。
巴克莱银行在10月4日周五的一份纪要中称：”我们的经济学家们仍然认为债务上限会在10月17日被提高，但更大的危险在于债务上限如果不被提高而带来的市场效应。这对黄金将有’上升风险’。”2011年的债务上限问题带来了大量的黄金购买。
在上周美国政府关闭后，金价并没如很多预期地上涨，反而有所下跌。巴克莱银行称：”总的来说，政府关闭后黄金的表现是符合之前一贯表现的。”
自1976年以来美国政府的17次关闭中，金价平均在第一天上升0.3%。此次政府关闭后第一天金价下跌了3.1%。在政府关闭前一周，金价平均下跌0.4%，而此次则下跌1.4%。美国政府关闭时间从1天到21天不等，平均来看金价都上升0.1%，其波动范围在下跌3.1%到上升0.9%内。在关闭后一周，价格平均上升0.3%，巴克莱认为：”总体来说，金价的反应很校”
而在两年前的债务上限问题中，金价则从2011年7月初的1500美元/盎司上升到了8月时几乎1800美元/盎司。巴克莱银行认为，黄金的避险保值功能吸引了跟大范围的投资者。
巴克莱银行总结道：”暂时的美国政府关闭并没有为金价带来积极影响，但债务上限危机可能重新引起对黄金的兴趣。因此我们认为目前的危机继续解决中，将减少因为债务上限而带来的新的政治危机的可能。”
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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