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美指上涨 打压贵金属价格下跌

关键字:贵金属价格

【基本面】

亚市早盘先后金价再次快速回落录得时段低点1320美元/盎司,现报1324.3美元,目前下跌0.21%。银价也下跌0.52%至21.41美元,早盘高点位于21.80美元。

昨日美国二季度GDP终值维持在2.5%,低于市场预期2.6%,就业领先指标则持续改善,上周初请失业金人数下降0.5万至30.5万,初请失业金四周均值也下降0.7万至30.8万。

参差不齐的数据后美元指数上涨,打压贵金属价格小幅回落,投资者似乎并没有将太多焦点放在二季度增长数据上,市场参与者更感兴趣的应该是国民经济的未来前景,由于三季度大多产出数据低于预期,接受华尔街日报调查的经济学家预测美国三季度GDP增速可能放缓至1.9%。美国物价水平维持低靡,二季度核心PCE季率终值从0.8%向下修正至0.6%,PCE年率终值甚至萎缩0.1%,持续走弱的通货膨胀可能反映了下游需求并不强劲,美联储或被迫在更长时间内维持极度宽松的货币政策以实现通胀目标。

宽松政策,一直以来都被看作是极度利好黄金价格的因素,特别是当全球还在处于金融危机后的阴影中。事实上,在2008年11月美联储主席伯南克(Bernanke)退出第一套量化宽松政策前,国际现货黄金价格仅为830美元/盎司左右。众所周知,之后黄金价格的涨势就一发不可收拾,并在2011年年中创下1920.50美元/盎司的历史高位。

 

【技术分析】

以小时图看,金价走势方向不明确,而且盘整曲线不太规则,但因黄金走势已接近跌破1324美元,趋势暂时向下,相对在1316-1330以及1307-1338区间里面交易,相对比较合适,建议逢高做空。

预计黄金价格今天将于1307-1340区间上落。

 

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本文来源: 大田环球贵金属

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