《市场观察》看跌美股行情的三个理由
关键字：美股行情
据美国财经网站《市场观察》报道，距离记录高点，道指已跌去3.8%，标普500跌去3.3%，同时美国国债收益率大幅上升，以下为投资者看跌美股的三个理由。
1、利率不知将走向何方
标普资本IQ首席证券策略师Sam Stovall在研报中写道：“华尔街厌恶不确定性，诸多不确定性导致美国国债收益率上升。”考虑到10年期国债收益率与名义GDP和CPI间的差异， “正确”的收益率应介于3%至4.2%之间，实际上是一个很大的范围。周一，收益率创两年来新高，迫近3% 。
Stovall称：“10年期国债收益率将稳定至何处，目前股价将持续承压。”ConvergEx集团首席市场策略师Nick Colas称，利率上升是看跌股市者的最大理由，如果利率继续走高，它们将在第四季度影响消费者支出，这将向股市施加更大压力。
2、9月国会将重新开会，必将迎来更多内斗
两年前，股市大跌被归咎于围绕债务上限展开的政治争斗(标普500两周内下跌了17%)，并导致评级机构标普首次下调美国3A顶尖评级。国会在 暑期休会后，将再次面临该问题。此外，Colas称自动减支不仅限于2013年。除非达成妥协，2014年美国联邦预算将削减1090亿美元。他称：“任 何人都认为这是负面影响，与2013年削减预算不同，美联储也将削减债券购买规模，而非增加。”
3、美联储的不确定性。
美联储将何时缩减月度850亿美元的债券购买规模仍未确定，部分人预计9月开始缩减，其他人认为是12月或之后。此外，美联储主席伯南克被视为不寻求另一个任期，目前看最有可能接替他的是副主席耶伦和前财长萨默斯，后者被认为更可能提前上调利率。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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