退出量化宽松预期被消化 金价将反弹
关键字：量化宽松、金价反弹
近期影响金价的主要因素是伯南克鸽派言论导致的市场预期变化。7月10日，伯南克“百年美联储”讲话一改之前的退出论调，认为可预见的未来都需要高度宽松的政策，同时警告失业数据高估了就业市场风险。此番始料不及的讲话直接使得美元指数跳水，就此展开黄金反弹。
不过，上周伯南克国会作证又采取了“打太极”的态度：他一方面强调失业率降至7%将会退出QE，另一方面又重申仍将长期维持超低利率，失业率并不显著构成加息信号。伯南克此番讲话割裂了退出QE与加息之间的关系。
这实际上是“围魏救赵”的做法，放任退出量化宽松预期，而去打压加息预期，从而继续释放长期宽松预期。由于市场炒作美联储退出QE已两月有余，利空充分消化，伯南克并不担心退出QE的利空继续发酵。他曾公开表示，实施QE拉低了美国长期利率100—150个基点。自5月份QE退出预期产生以来，10年期国债收益率已经飙涨约100基点。所以，有理由认为，当前的长期国债收益率已经充分消化了退出QE的利空。
值得注意的是，目前美国处于低通胀环境，并无加息需求，美联储成功地口头干预市场预期后，实际利率已温和回落，美元弱势振荡，这对黄金重新形成宽松的氛围。
另外，现货和季节性消费也支持反弹。自4月份黄金大跌以来，国内的实物需求就一直上升，这主要反映在黄金现货溢价上。上海黄金交易所黄金现货溢价一般都位于10美元/盎司以下。随着金价的下行，现货溢价一路攀升，当金价跌破1300美元/盎司关口后，溢价一度超过30美元/盎司。
总的来说，前期炒作题材“退出QE预期”被市场充分消化，在三季度季节性旺季叠加强劲现货需求的背景下，黄金将走出一波中线反弹行情。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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