高盛唱空黄金：未来12个月贵金属跌8%
关键字：高盛、贵金属下跌
在黄金大涨逾3%的带领下，外盘金属价格近日再现回暖迹象，看似有望摆脱持续的低迷。业内认为，黄金等大宗商品价格反弹，主要是因为近期市场对于美国QE退出的担忧减弱以及由此带来的美元走软。此外，中国可能支持经济以及日本安倍政权巩固执政地位，也被认为对商品价格有支撑作用。
不过，从基本面来看，不少机构仍不看好大宗商品中期的价格前景，而美联储在今年9月开始逐步退出QE也已是大概率事件。就在金价大涨当天，高盛再度发布报告，下调未来12个月大宗商品回报预测，尤其看空贵金属。
尽管大宗商品市场近日呈现回暖迹象，但从基本面来看，业内对前景并不太乐观。
从中美两大经济体的前景看，各自有各自的问题。中国已在上周的G20财长和央行行长会议上放出话来，不要指望中国经济再能像以往那样高速增长，当局可能满足于更慢但更有质量的增长。而美国尽管被公认为目前形势最好的主要经济体，但复苏步伐依然蹒跚。
即便是在最被寄予厚望的美国房地产市场，近期也出现了不稳定的信号。周一公布的数据显示，6月份，美国二手房销量环比下降1.2%，而市场预期会增长1.9%。上周公布的新屋开工和住房建筑许可数据也出现下滑。
在商品市场影响极大的投行高盛22日再发重磅报告，唱空商品前景。以杰弗里·库里为首的高盛商品分析团队宣布，大宗商品12个月回报预估下调至几乎为零。具体来看，高盛维持对基础原材料的中性推荐评级，同时看跌黄金。高盛称，未来12个月贵金属和农产品可能下跌8%，但基本金属可能上涨6%。
推荐阅读：
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
最新内容
Risk Warning
Trading bullion and financial instruments carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, requiring careful consideration of investment objectives, experience, and risk tolerance. Key risks include market volatility, leverage risks that can amplify gains or losses, liquidity issues that may prevent executing trades at desired prices, and technical failures in online trading systems. Prices fluctuate unpredictably, and past performance does not guarantee future results. CIDT Global Bullion Limited provides general market commentary but does not offer investment advice and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its information, which may change without notice.
Jurisdiction Disclaimer
CIDT Global Bullion Limited's services are subject to local regulations and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with their local laws. Services are not provided in regions where they are prohibited by law, under international sanctions, or require licensing that the company does not hold. By using the platform, users confirm they are not in a restricted jurisdiction and accept full responsibility for legal compliance. The company reserves the right to decline or terminate services in restricted areas without prior notice.